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Prof Chan Yan Chong’s Column

Written By Chan Yan Chong on 29 Aug 2008 Prof Chan Yan Chong Add comments (0) Contact Author


This is the period where most listed companies announce their results, which underpin the performance and direction of their respective share prices. Even when results are good, the share prices of these companies will still fall as the prevailing sentiment will still rule over fundamentals.
Bear in mind that the fall in share price is only temporary and companies that report good results will be rewarded in the long run, as their solid earnings will boost future share prices when the sentiment turns for the better.

It is important to note that Warren Buffett has said that some companies are now looking attractive after the selloff.
Does it mean that the market has bottomed and the bear market is coming to an end?

I do not think so because a bottom is usually preceded by a sharp selloff that even the best of investors may not have the chance to catch share prices at the rock bottom. Normally when a big investor like Warren Buffett buys into a company, he will spend a lot of time talking to the management persuading them to issue new shares. At rock bottom prices, the management is unlikely to want to issue new shares for fear of diluting current shareholders, including themselves.

In a bear market, not all share prices will fall because some shares have the tendency to rise against the trend. There are other stocks that will rebound almost immediately after a selloff.

At this stage, there are a lot of investors who are living in fear and have sold off most of their portfolio in return for cash hoping to buy back lower. There are others who are stuck with shares bought at very high prices and also living in fear.
Both scenarios are very unhealthy.

There are investors who are now holding onto cash position yet do not have the conviction to buy when share prices are low. Those who sold earlier and jumped back in are now in negative positions again. When this process is repeated time and again, confidence is lost and they no longer have the guts to venture into the stock market.

When the bear market ends in future, these investors will treat every rebound as a bear market rally. They will stay out until the market become euphoric before they jump back in again. Once again, their buy-high sell-low situation is revisited.

If an investor were to hold only shares and have no cash in hand, this is very unhealthy and extremely bad for mental health. Most of the time, excessive pressure will force these investors into selling eventually.

The most ideal situation now is to hold 70% cash and 30% shares, which must be low in price earnings ratio. These stocks will be more resilient to selling and are likely to stage a strong rally when the bull market comes back.

We need a lot of emotional quotient to survive this bear market. We need to learn how to balance our lives by not being too emotionally involved in the stock market.

At this moment, we should be holding onto stocks with low price earnings and a long-term prospects. Warrant Buffet said that we should not be owning stocks if we do not intend to hold them for more than a decade.



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