SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)–The comedian Billy Connolly jokes that there are two seasons in Scotland: “June and winter.”

Perhaps not, though, for traders. We may find the coming month fails to bring much sunshine even as optimism grows on the U.S. - and global - economy.

Here are the top eight themes for foreign exchange markets in June:

Traders will be closely watching the U.S. economy for signs it is holding up well, all things considered, with some expecting it to soon exhibit renewed strength.

But those hopes may be premature.

Retail and housing data are still showing weakness and consumer sentiment remains a key variable. May nonfarm payrolls due Friday are forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires poll to have fallen a further 70,000, and April payrolls may be revised downward. Hardly an economy in recovery mode, even if it’s not as bad as some had expected for this time of the year.

Also, the Institute for Supply Management’s May manufacturing index is expected to remain below 50 - contraction territory - as inflation pressures restrict activity. Economists expect a reading of 48.5, from 48.6 in April, while the key services index is likely to print at 51.1, little changed from April’s 52.0.

Markets may have gotten a little ahead of themselves in May in predicting a recovery in the U.S. economy within a matter of months - and thus a sustainable recovery in the dollar. Wait until later in the year for that.

Theme No. 2 will be oil prices, which are expected to stay lofty around $115-$130 in June and thus also pressure the dollar.

But oil is not just a negative for the U.S. currency (or a positive for the euro). There are winners and losers in Asia, depending on how much a particularly country is reliant on oil, its current-account position and its fiscal position.

Goldman Sachs recently put the biggest winners from higher oil prices as the Canadian dollar, the Norwegian krone, the Malaysian ringgit, plus the Australian dollar and the euro. The biggest losers, the bank says, are the Korean won, the Taiwan dollar, the Philippine peso and the Thai baht, as well as the Indian rupee and the Chinese yuan (the won, rupee and peso seem to be the favored whipping boys as a whole when it comes to punishing misbehavior on the current-account front).

That’s based on the sensitivity of currencies to oil on four counts: energy trade balance, energy reserves, terms-of-trade sensitivity to oil and foreign exchange trade-weighted-index correlation to oil.

Indonesian oil importers also need to buy a lot of dollars, and the rupiah has been feeling the pinch because of that.

The theme of oil naturally feeds into the theme of inflation, as countries like Indonesia and Taiwan look to cut fuel-price subsidies and as Asia as a whole grapples with higher prices, not just for energy but also food and other commodities.

Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen believes the stagflation risk is highest in emerging markets (food prices make up 30-50% of the consumer-price index basket in many such economies).

The economic damage from high inflation may inflict more pain on Asian currencies than the buffer that some central banks may provide (though slowly) in the form of higher interest rates.

Officials may also tolerate greater currency gains in Asia (theme No. 4), but again this may be outweighed by the broader hit from economic weakness derived from high prices.

So far we’ve seen limited use of currencies as interest-rate tools (aside from Singapore), and many Asian currencies are still weaker year-to-date. Korea and India in particular may have to embrace more activist intervention policies for their currencies.

Theme No. 5 is the Federal Reserve, which meets later this month on interest rates.

The June meeting is unlikely to be hugely exciting, with Bernanke & Co. most likely to hold rates steady. What will be interesting is whether they signal greater comfort with where the U.S. economy is going, and greater discomfort on prices.

The rate-futures market in the U.S. is still looking at a 56% chance for a rate hike in late October. That may offer some measure of support for the dollar but is a fragile support at best - rate-hike expectations could easily dissolve in the coming weeks.

Theme No. 6 is yield in general. We have several key central bank meetings on the slate in early June, including Australia, New Zealand, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

While most of these central banks are expected to hold rates where they are this month, there is the expectation that Australia and the ECB, in particular, won’t be showing any inclination to cut rates - the RBA may even have another hike in the pipeline.

The Kiwis have been sounding more dovish of late, but after a pretty stimulatory budget from the government it may be hard to enact any rate cuts before the end of the year. Yield should continue to support the Australian (and New Zealand) currencies and others, especially if stock markets calm further and the Japanese continue to show appetite for the carry trade as a result.

Theme No. 7 will be U.S. and euro-zone rhetoric on the relative strength of the dollar and the euro.

It’s doubtful the U.S. and Europe have agreed behind the scenes to welcome gains in the dollar, especially with the U.S. economy still on such shaky footing, and especially with first-quarter earnings season showing how many big U.S. firms are reliant on offshore demand to shore up their bottom lines.

Expect this issue to keep coming up, though, in market chatter with rumors the U.S. has give the green light to a rising dollar.

The yuan again makes it into the top eight. After a quiet April and first half of May, Beijing has loosened its grip a little on the yuan and allowed some fresh gains.

There was much doubt anyway that it had shifted gears on currency policy (i.e., to put the brakes on the yuan), but the comments from officials of late should serve to reassure that they view a strong currency as a part of their inflation-fighting strategy.